Q3 2026 edition. This page is updated every quarter at the same address, so the figures below describe the quarter named in the heading. Previous quarters are linked at the bottom.
The Quarter in One Table
| Miami coastal market, $1 million and above | Q3 2026 | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Condominium closings (my MLS export, coastal areas) | 247 | 340 in Q2 2026 |
| Closed condominium volume | $783 million | $1,238 million in Q2 2026 |
| Median closed condominium price | $1,875,000 | $2,140,000 in Q2 2026 |
| All closings, homes and condominiums (TrendGraphix) | 507 | 482 in Q3 2025, up 5.2% |
| Median sold price, homes and condominiums | $2,063,000 | $2,000,000 in Q3 2025, up 3.2% |
| Average price per square foot sold | $1,508 | $1,425 in Q3 2025, up 5.8% |
| Active listings | 1,894 | 2,332 a year earlier, down 18.8% |
| Months of inventory, closed-sales basis | 11.5 | Buyer’s market above 6 months |
| Absorption rate | 8.7% | Up 31.6% year over year |
| Average days on market, September | 117 | Up 25.8% from August |
| Sold price to original list price | 86.00% | Falling over recent months |
| Pre-construction listings, 2027 or later | 47 | Median ask $1,931 per square foot |
The Headline: Slower Than Spring, Busier Than Last Year
Those first two blocks of the table point in opposite directions, and both are correct.
Against Q2 2026, this quarter looks weak. Coastal condominium closings above $1 million fell from 340 to 247, volume fell 37%, and the median fell 12%. Against Q3 2025, the market looks healthier. Total closings rose 5.2%, the median rose 3.2%, price per square foot rose 5.8%, and active inventory fell 18.8%.
Two things explain the difference. Q3 is seasonally the slowest quarter in Miami, so a decline from the spring is normal. And my condominium export was pulled on October 1, the day after the quarter closed, so late-recorded sales are missing from it.
One signal survives both corrections. Coastal condominium sales above $5 million fell from 62 in Q2 to 30 in Q3. That is a 52% decline, which is larger than seasonality or recording lag explains on its own. In a separate dataset, Fisher Island recorded no condominium sale above $5 million between June and mid-September. The top of the market paused this summer.
| Coastal condominium closings above $1M | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closings | 310 | 340 | 247 |
| Closed volume | $1,059M | $1,238M | $783M |
| Median sold price | $2,020,000 | $2,140,000 | $1,875,000 |
| Sales above $5 million | 49 | 62 | 30 |
| Closings in buildings delivered 2024 or later | 20 | 26 | 15 |
| New-build share of closings | 6% | 8% | 6% |
The Pre-Construction Pipeline in Q3
Forty-seven active listings sit in buildings the MLS schedules for 2027 or later, asking a median of $4,255,000, or $1,931 per square foot. Another 14 residences in 2027 and 2028 buildings are under contract and pending.
| Building | Scheduled | Active listings | Median asking price | Median asking $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritz-Carlton Residences South Beach | 2028 | 6 | $9,175,000 | $4,088 |
| Ocean House | 2027 | 2 | $13,800,000 | $4,004 |
| The Delmore, 8777 Collins, Surfside | 2029 | 4 | $26,025,000 | $3,963 |
| Bentley Residences Sunny Isles Beach | 2028 | 2 | $8,850,000 | $2,935 |
| St. Regis Residences | 2029 | 1 | $8,862,500 | $2,800 |
| Milano Boutique Condo | 2027 | 5 | $4,255,000 | $2,205 |
| The Well Coconut Grove | 2028 | 5 | $3,395,000 | $1,946 |
| 29 Indian Creek | 2027 | 3 | $2,822,050 | $1,944 |
| Ponce Park, Coral Gables | 2027 | 5 | $4,887,500 | $1,532 |
Ritz-Carlton Residences South Beach carries the highest asking price per square foot in the pipeline and also the most contract activity, with seven pending sales against six active listings. The Delmore asks $3,963 per square foot for 2029 delivery in Surfside, which is the one submarket where delivered product has closed near that level.
By submarket, the pre-construction asking prices where I could assign the address with confidence:
| Submarket | Pre-construction listings | Median asking price | Median asking $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Beach | 6 | $9,175,000 | $4,088 |
| Surfside | 6 | $19,425,000 | $4,004 |
| Sunny Isles Beach | 3 | $8,850,000 | $2,868 |
| Coconut Grove | 4 | $3,839,500 | $1,854 |
| Coral Gables | 5 | $4,675,000 | $1,482 |
Twenty-two of the 47 listings could not be assigned to a submarket from the address alone, so that table describes the 25 I could place. The two tables above are grouped differently, by building and by submarket, so their counts are not meant to add up to each other. Treat every row with three to six listings as a description of those listings rather than a neighborhood benchmark.
The Delivery Gap: What Unbuilt Product Asks Against What Finished Product Closes At
This is the single most useful number in pre-construction, and it is not one number. It widens as the price rises.
| Price floor | Pre-construction asking $/SF, 2027 or later | Delivered 2024 to 2026 closing $/SF | Delivery Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1 million | $1,931 | $1,675 | +15% |
| Above $5 million | $2,935 | $2,357 | +25% |
A buyer signing a pre-construction contract above $1 million is paying 15% more per square foot than the newest finished buildings are closing at. Above $5 million the premium is 25%.
That is the bet, not the loss. A contract signed in late 2026 delivers in 2029, and the buyer is paying for three years of appreciation plus the value of being first in a new building. Whether the bet pays is a forecast. The size of the bet is a fact, and it should be stated before signing.
What the Delivered Class Actually Closed At
Buildings that delivered in 2024, 2025 and 2026 have recorded 118 closings above $1 million since January 2024, at a median of $3,355,525 and $1,675 per square foot, with sellers taking a median of 93.4% of asking.
Those closings are mostly developer sales rather than resales. A buyer who signed in 2022 is taking title now. The sold-to-list ratio separates them reasonably well. Aurora Sunny Isles closed at exactly 100% of asking in a median of 29 days, which is a developer closing. Five Park at 93.1% and Mr. C Coconut Grove at 92.3% look like a mix that includes negotiated resales.
The full building-by-building detail, including the resale queues forming in these towers, is in Miami new construction 2026, what the delivered buildings actually closed at.
Pricing Discipline: The 86% Number
Across the coastal market above $1 million, September closings came in at 86.00% of the original asking price. Sellers who look only at the last list price see a much flatter picture, usually 92% to 94%, because that figure is measured after the reductions have already happened.
The distance between those two numbers is the cost of starting too high. Average days on market also rose to 117 in September, up 25.8% from August, while inventory sits at 11.5 months on a closed-sales basis. This is a buyer’s market on supply, with year-over-year price strength. Those two facts coexist because inventory fell 18.8% from a year ago.
For the full timing picture by submarket, building and price band, see how long it takes to sell a $5 million Miami condo.
What I Am Telling Pre-Construction Buyers This Quarter
Price the contract against delivered buildings, not against other pre-construction. The pipeline prices itself relative to itself. The only honest benchmark is what finished buildings close at, which is 15% to 25% below where pre-construction asks.
Read the resale queue in the building you are buying into. Buildings delivered since 2024 hold about three times the listings per sale that older buildings do. You will meet that queue at resale.
Budget the deposit schedule, not just the price. Miami pre-construction typically requires a substantial share of the purchase price across construction milestones, years before delivery and before any rental income. Confirm the exact schedule in the purchase agreement for your building, because it differs by developer.
Treat the delivery year as a target. Every year in this report comes from the MLS year-built field, which for an unbuilt tower is a projection. Those dates move.
If you want new product in a specific village, check whether it exists. Bal Harbour recorded 48 closings above $5 million in three years and not one in a building newer than 2017. The analysis is in the Bal Harbour condo market report.
What I Am Telling Sellers This Quarter
Your first asking price is the one that matters. 86% of original list is the market’s answer to an aggressive start. The reduction does not recover the difference, it documents it.
Inventory is tighter than the months-of-supply figure suggests. Active listings are down 18.8% year over year. If your residence is genuinely scarce in its building, this is a better quarter than the headline implies.
Above $5 million, plan for a longer runway. That band produced 30 coastal closings in Q3 against 62 in Q2.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Miami pre-construction asking per square foot in Q3 2026?
A median of $1,931 per square foot across 47 active listings in buildings scheduled for 2027 or later, at a median asking price of $4,255,000. By building the range runs from $1,532 per square foot at Ponce Park in Coral Gables to $4,088 at Ritz-Carlton Residences South Beach.
How much more does pre-construction cost than a finished new building?
15% more per square foot above $1 million, and 25% more above $5 million. Pre-construction asks a median of $1,931 per square foot while buildings delivered from 2024 to 2026 closed at $1,675. Above $5 million the comparison is $2,935 asking against $2,357 closing.
Did the Miami luxury condo market slow in Q3 2026?
Against the spring, yes. Coastal condominium closings above $1 million fell from 340 in Q2 to 247 in Q3. Against the same quarter last year, no. TrendGraphix shows 507 closings in July through September 2026 against 482 a year earlier, with the median up 3.2% and inventory down 18.8%. Q3 is seasonally the slowest quarter, and some Q3 sales were not yet recorded when this data was pulled. The clearest soft spot is above $5 million, where closings fell from 62 to 30.
Is Miami a buyer’s market or a seller’s market right now?
On supply it is a buyer’s market, at 11.5 months of inventory on a closed-sales basis, where anything above six months favors buyers. On pricing it is firmer than that sounds, with the median sold price up 3.2% year over year and inventory down 18.8%. Sold price to original list price is 86.00%, so overpriced listings are still being corrected.
Which Miami pre-construction building has the most contract activity?
Ritz-Carlton Residences South Beach, with seven pending sales against six active listings, scheduled for 2028 at a median asking price of $9,175,000.
How long does a Miami pre-construction contract take to deliver?
The buildings in this quarter’s pipeline carry MLS target years from 2027 to 2029, so a contract signed now typically delivers in one to three years. Those dates are projections and they move, which is why the deposit schedule and the delay provisions in the purchase agreement matter as much as the price.
Buying or Selling Miami Pre-Construction?
A pre-construction price cannot be judged from the brochure or from the building next door. It depends on what finished buildings in that submarket are closing at, how many residences in the same line are already listed for resale, the deposit schedule, the delay provisions, and what the developer still holds.
If you’re evaluating a contract at Ritz-Carlton Residences South Beach, The Delmore, Bentley Residences, St. Regis Residences, The Well Coconut Grove, Ocean House or any Miami pre-construction tower, contact Ashton Coleman for a property-specific comparison using recent closed sales and current competing inventory.
Explore current listings on Miami Penthouses & Estates.
📞 305.978.7704
📧 AColeman@onesothebysrealty.com
Previous Quarters
This report is published at one permanent address and updated each quarter, so the link above preserves the earlier edition while this page always carries the current quarter.
About the Market Data
This report uses four sources, each stated where it is used.
Quarterly closings. Three Southeast Florida MLS (SEFMLS) exports of coastal Miami condominium closings above $1 million, one per quarter of 2026, covering MLS areas 12, 21, 22, 32, 41, 42 and 50. Q1 contains 310 closings, Q2 340 and Q3 247. The Q1 file includes one closing dated December 31, 2025. The Q3 file was pulled on October 1, 2026, so closings recorded after that date are missing and the Q3 figures understate the quarter.
New construction and pre-construction. An MLS export of Miami new-construction condominium listings and closings above $1 million, pulled October 1, 2026. It contains 118 closings since January 2024 in buildings dated 2024 to 2026, 167 active listings in those buildings, 47 active listings in buildings dated 2027 or later, and 49 pending sales. The export is built on the MLS new-construction designation, so it is not a complete census of sales in new buildings.
Market-wide trend figures. A TrendGraphix Facts and Trends report for September 2026 covering Aventura, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Eastern Shores, Fisher Island, Golden Beach, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Miami Shores, North Bay Village, Sunny Isles Beach and Surfside, at $1 million and above, single-family homes and condominiums combined. Months of inventory, absorption, sold to original list price, days on market and the year-over-year comparisons come from that report. Because it combines houses and condominiums across a wider area, its figures are not directly comparable to the condominium-only quarterly exports above.
The $5 million comparisons. An MLS export of Miami-Dade condominium closings above $5 million from January 2024 to September 2026 with active listings as of September 2026.
Building years are the MLS year-built field, which for an unbuilt tower is a target date that moves. Sold-to-list uses the list price on the closed record, which may already be reduced, while the 86.00% figure is measured against the original asking price. Price per square foot counts interior space only. Several pre-construction buildings rest on one to six listings, so those rows describe those listings rather than the building. MLS information is believed accurate but is not guaranteed.
Disclaimer
Information is provided for informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice. Real estate statistics, listings and sales information should be independently verified. Nothing contained herein constitutes legal, tax, financial or investment advice. Buyers and sellers should consult appropriate professional advisors before making real estate decisions.
