Miami Beach Real Estate Sales: Summer vs. Winter (2016 Update)

In 2014, I looked for an answer to a common question:

“When is the best time to list my property to sell?”

Here is the Post entitled Miami Beach Real Estate Summer vs. Winter Season

I became an analytics junkie in 2007 during “the bloodbath” as it was referred to and during the following three years began noticing signs and trends happening in our local market including an escalation in inventory absorption along with general optimism. In 2010, many were playing the waiting game thinking the market hadn’t yet hit the low while a common practice was to judge a building by looking for lights on at night (seriously). I became bullish and informed my fence sitting clients to buy. In hindsight, the lowest was probably the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2011 but those early buyers were glad they bought when they did. Short sales and REO’s (bank owned) deals were a common practice back then making up 18% and 5% inventory respectively. I didn’t know if it was the lowest the market would go but I did see inventory showing consistent absorption along with a drop in distressed opportunities.

Buyers and sellers will many times drive themselves crazy when trying to time the market. Everyone, even the most skilled investor, prefers to buy at the low while sellers want to sell at the high. Timing is everything when it comes to successfully buying low or selling high but then how does one succeed considering what we do here is trade condos?

Look at absorption rates
Study year-over-year sales trends
Do the opposite of the majority (is it a buyers or sellers market)
Look at the horizon, think long-term and hold – it’s Miami baby!

While buyers may search for a home year round, Realtor.com says, “Prime home-buying season begins in April and reaches its peak in June.” Furthermore, “sellers who list their home during the prime spring and summer months benefit from a larger population of buyers and potential bidding wars, which often result in higher prices and faster closings.”

The discrepancy with the statement here from Realtor.com is that real estate markets can differ with trends being hyper-local. As for Miami, the summer months were typically considered as slow months. During the winter months, when things cool down and tourists arrive, many come to play, explore, and buy. In the real estate community, this is generally the time most suggest to list in order to have the largest selection from the buyer pool.

Here are those seasonal figures with green highlighting the stronger season.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Sales (Over $500k):

(NOV 1st to APR 30th as Winter | MAY 1st to OCT 31st as Summer)

2015 Winter – 318 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $850,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $720
2015 Summer – 372 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $850,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $712
2014 Winter – 416 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $855,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $746
2014 Summer – 379 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $820,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $697
2013 Winter – 408 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $860,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $692
2013 Summer – 451 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $791,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $630
2012 Winter – 382 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $863,750 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $691
2012 Summer – 348 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $967,500 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $688
2011 Winter – 322 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $775,650 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $606
2011 Summer – 315 Total Condo Sales | Median Sale Price $775,000 | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $585

As for Miami Beach luxury condo sales, time and time again sellers achieve a higher price per square foot during the winter months of November through April. There were a few summer months with a greater number of transactions but overall, a higher price point is clearly achieved during the more desirable winter time frame.

Miami Beach Luxury Home Sales (Over $1M):

(NOV 1st to APR 30th as Winter | MAY 1st to OCT 31st as Summer)

2015 Winter – 72 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $1.818M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $641
2015 Summer – 104 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $1.995M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $689
2014 Winter – 92 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $2M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $665
2014 Summer – 116 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $2.225M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $648
2013 Winter – 89 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $1.750M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $594
2013 Summer – 108 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $1.914M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $580
2012 Winter – 95 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $1.9M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $506
2012 Summer – 66 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $2.350M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $618
2011 Winter – 58 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $1.943M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $604
2011 Summer – 53 Total Home Sales | Median Sale Price $2.4M | Median Sale Price Per Square Foot $590

Miami Beach home sales show a higher number of sales during the summer months while price points peaked in the summer of last year. Why is this? Your guess is as good as mine. Quite possibly the winter draw brings vacationers wanting a condo where they can simply ‘set it and forget it’ which is why second-home owners prefer a condominium versus a home.

As a side note: It’s interesting to see home sales dropping off some 30% this past winter with the highest price point at $689 in the summer of 2015.

Prior to 2002, the summer months were quiet on South Beach. I recall first visiting in the summer of 2000 and the parking situation was as easy as pulling upfront to the destination. There was no traffic! This gradually changed as Miami became a hub for Latin America tourism and the pace for purchasing escalated tremendously with our summers being their seasonal vacation/holiday time. Over 30% of Miami’s buyers have originated from Latin America and this is helped strengthened our slower summers for more than a decade.

What the upcoming summer season holds for Southeast Florida’s residential sales, only time will tell but the demand year-round has been fairly consistent in Miami Beach. As noted with home sales slowing in winter 2015, I believe we will continue to see a slower sales period given our current market climate. We have new construction inventory being released this year (into 2019), along with weak foreign currencies and government scrutiny on cash purchases above 1 million each of which has caused local market dynamics to change. We are currently in a strong buyers market with what looks to be price drops across the board. Interest rates are still very low while many including local economists, agents and developers remain bullish.

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Miami Beach Real Estate Sales: Summer vs. Winter (2016 Update)