Miami Coastal Condos & Real Estate Trends. Miami real estate in 2022 is in high demand, especially in the premier coastal areas. In researching investment properties for a client this week, I realized a disproportionate number of pending sales to the tune of:
To understand the real estate trends happening this year, I’ve decided to get into the numbers and analyze, by pricing bands, what these next few months and the remainder of the year may hold for our local condominium market.
In sizing up some basic stats, such as condo inventory, sale price per square foot, and absorption rates, we are using various pricing bands noted below for condominiums in Miami. I’m seeing FOMO (fear of missing out) when it comes to buyer demand at < $500,000, but also curious about the upper tier on supply & demand and what this year holds for the $5M to $10M Miami properties for sale.
Miami Coastal Condos < $500,000
3Q and on will be most interesting as our inventory glut of 2019 is far behind us. The absorption rate is unprecedented, with properties purchased as second homes and investment properties being swooped up to the tune of very limited & tight supply, especially in the coming months.
In 2021, 5,000+ (MLS max) properties sold within this price point (via MLS) with a median SP/$ at $318 psf. So far at the time of this research in mid-February, 834 condos have sold at a median SP/$ of $348 psf.
As of February MLS stats, there are 1,563 pending contracts at a median LP/$ of $363 psf. As of nearly a month ago, from the third graph below, we see a 3.4-month supply, whereas today shows only 2.4 months.
The supply of homes below $500,000 are “disappearing.”
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun
Miami Coastal Condos $500,000 to $1,000,000
Miami coastal condos within this “affordable” price point are also selling quickly. To find an older but quality 2 bedroom condominium with great Miami views is still attainable here.
In 2021, 4,678 properties sold within this price point (via MLS) with a median SP/$ at $476 psf. So far at the time of this research in mid-February, 550 condos have sold at a median SP/$ of $528 psf.
As of February MLS stats, there are 923 pending contracts at a median LP/$ of $609 psf.
Miami Coastal Condos $1,000,000 to $3,000,000
For newer construction, this is the sweet spot for 2-bedroom condos in Miami but with minimal supply.
In 2021, 3,015 properties sold within this price point (via MLS) with a median SP/$ at $717 psf. So far, at the time of this research, in mid-February, 318 condos have sold at a median SP/$ of $772 psf.
As of February MLS stats, there are 562 pending contracts at a median LP/$ of $831 psf.
Miami Coastal Condos $3,000,000 to $5,000,000
With inventory down to less than 9 months and selling price per square foot on the rise, the $3m to $5m pricing band is a top contender, with absorption rates increasing quickly. This is the target range for anyone wanting a newer 3-bedroom condo option in a premier building with incredible Miami views.
In 2021, 347 properties sold within this price point (via MLS) with a median SP/$ at $1,233 psf. So far, at the time of this research, in mid-February, 47 condos have sold at a median SP/$ of $1,468 psf.
As of February MLS stats, there are 82 pending contracts at a median LP/$ of $1,251 psf.
Miami Coastal Condos $5,000,000 to $10,000,000
For an exceptional 4 to 6-bedroom (3,300-4,500 SF Ave.) condominium, you’ll find the best selection when value & views are essential. You can still cherry-pick an excellent newer property with extraordinary Miami views within this price point.
Within this range, I have an exclusive listing at the lowest price per square foot at Trump Royale, listed at $7.899m ($1,230 psf). With a median list price per square foot at $1,849 psf today, anything less than $1,400 psf is a deal.
In 2021, 224 properties sold within this price point (via MLS) with a median SP/$ at $1,812 psf. So far, at the time of this research, in mid-February, 21 condos sold at a median SP/$ of $2,160 psf.
As of February MLS stats, there are 55 pending contracts at a median LP/$ of $1,915 psf.
Miami Coastal Condos $10,000,000 to $20,000,000
Within this ultra-luxury pricing band, we see resale inventory on a steady decline with the selling price per square foot continually increasing – still, at a 17.3-month supply as of January graph stats below, there is a good selection for buyers. This will be a price point with similar trends and solid growth this year.
In 2021, 65 properties sold within this price point (via MLS) with a median SP/$ at $2,539 psf. So far at the time of this research, in mid-February, 7 have sold at a median SP/$ of $3,126 psf.
As of February MLS stats, there are 23 pending contracts at a median LP/$ of $3,128 psf.
South Florida’s luxury residential market is surging, with sales of homes priced at $10 million or more rising exponentially.
The Real Deal
Miami Coastal Condos > $20,000,000
This price point entails the best trophy properties in Miami, with incredible floor plans and all-encompassing Miami views. Approximately 1/5 of residential property sales in Miami-Dade County are condominiums when sold for over $20m. Still, when they do, people take notice of both the development and the price per square foot.
In 2021, 9 properties sold from $20-$40m (via MLS), nearly half on Fisher Island. So far, at the time of this research, 2 have sold at $21m (Palazzo Del Mare) and $23m (Surf Club).
What’s most impressive is that we find 8 pending contracts today at a median LP/$ of $4,858 psf, so it should be wide open for ultra-luxury condo sales & trends this year ahead.
Florida was in second place for super-luxury sales this year, seeing 11 purchases valued at $941 million. The biggest sale of the year in the state was at 535 North County Road in Palm Beach, traded for $122.7 million.
Bloomberg
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