Miami Beach Real Estate Sales: Summer vs. Winter Seasons 2017

Prior to 2002, the summer months were very quiet on South Beach. I recall first visiting in the summer of 2000 and the parking situation was as easy as pulling to the front of the destination. There was no traffic! This gradually changed as Miami became a major hub for tourism and the pace of owning real estate escalated.

I became an analytics junkie in 2007 during “the bloodbath” as it was referred to and during the following three years began noticing signs and trends happening in our local market including an escalation in inventory absorption along with general optimism. In 2010, many were playing the waiting game thinking the market hadn’t yet hit the low while a common practice was to judge a building’s success by looking for lights on at night (yes, seriously). In dissecting figures each month and understanding trends, I became bullish and informed my fence sitting clients to buy. In hindsight, the lowest was probably the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2011 but by 2013, those early buyers were glad they bought when they did. Short sales and REO’s (bank owned) deals were a common practice back then making up 18% and 5% inventory respectively. I didn’t know if it was the lowest the market would go but I did see inventory showing consistent absorption along with a continual drop in distressed opportunities.

In 2014, I looked for an answer to a common question:

“When is the best time to list my property to sell?”

While buyers may search for a home year-round, Realtor.com says:

“Prime home-buying season begins in April and reaches its peak in June.” Furthermore, “sellers who list their home during the prime spring and summer months benefit from a larger population of buyers and potential bidding wars, which often result in higher prices and faster closings.”

The discrepancy with the statement here from Realtor.com is that real estate markets can differ with trends being hyper-local. As for Miami Beach, the summer months were in the past, typically considered as slow months. During the winter months, when the weather cools down and tourists arrive, many come to play, explore cool new locations & events and actually end up buying a property to have a tangible piece of the South Florida lifestyle. In the Miami Beach real estate community, this is generally the ideal time most suggest to list in order to have the largest selection from the buyer pool.

It’s quite common for the real estate community to assume winter is the most valued time for residential sales to take place. Latin America has helped maintain a dominant force in the summertime given their holiday season falls during our summer months. A significant number of Miami’s condo buyers have originated from Latin America and this has helped strengthen our slower summers for more than a decade. On the flipside, other factors such as hurricane Irma made a small dent this summer, although temporary, in residential sales as closings were halted for 2+ weeks.

Buyers and sellers will many times drive themselves crazy when trying to time the market. Everyone prefers to buy low while selling high during each market cycle, however, even the most skilled investors will tell you there are many factors to consider but do find it rare to hit the bullseye of peaks and valleys. Timing is, in fact, everything when it comes to successfully buying low and selling high but then how does one succeed considering what most investors do here are timing cycles and trading condos?

1. How many months of inventory? Look at the absorption rates.
2. Study SP$/PSF values & general trends; I report them here monthly.
3. Is it a buyers or seller’s market? Simply do the opposite of the majority.
4. Be calculated and BOLD in making the offer(s), then be optimistic and wait patiently.
5. Look at the horizon of what’s to come in South Florida, think long-term, buy right and hold – after all, it’s Miami!

Here are those seasonal figures for condos and homes summarized and highlighting the stronger season(s).

Miami Beach Real Estate Sales: Summer vs. Winter Seasons (2017 Update)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Sales (Over $500k)

(NOV 1st to APR 30th as Winter  |  MAY 1st to OCT 31st as Summer)

• 2017 Winter – APR 2018; TBD Total Condo Sales | Median Sale (SP) Price | Median (Sale SP$/PSF) Price Per Square Foot
• 2017 Summer – 267⬇ Total Condo Sales | Median SP $873,000 | Median SP$/PSF $676
• 2016 Winter – 273 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $848,000 | Median SP$/PSF $696⬇
• 2016 Summer – 281 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $900,000⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $730
• 2015 Winter – 318 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $850,000 | Median SP$/PSF $720
• 2015 Summer – 372 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $850,000 | Median SP$/PSF $712
• 2014 Winter – 416 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $855,000 | Median SP$/PSF $746⬆
• 2014 Summer – 379 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $820,000 | Median SP$/PSF $697
• 2013 Winter – 408 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $860,000 | Median SP$/PSF $692
• 2013 Summer – 451⬆ Total Condo Sales | Median SP $791,000 | Median SP$/PSF $630
• 2012 Winter – 382 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $863,750 | Median SP$/PSF $691
• 2012 Summer – 348 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $967,500 | Median SP$/PSF $688
• 2011 Winter – 322 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $775,650 | Median SP$/PSF $606
• 2011 Summer – 315 Total Condo Sales | Median SP $775,000 | Median SP$/PSF $585

Miami Beach Condo Sales | Highlights & Notes:

• Median Sale Prices peaked in the summer of 2016 at $900k
• Median SP$/PSF values peaked at $746 psf in the winter of 2014.
• Median SP$/PSF values decreased 9.4% when comparing the peak to our recent 2017 summer condo sales.

As for Miami Beach luxury condo sales, time and time again sellers achieved a higher price per square foot during the winter months of November through April. However, with our current residential market, we find a consistent decrease in median price per square foot values since the summer of 2015 into summer 2017. Overall, the total number of Miami Beach condo sales have been tapering off since the winter of 2013. Over the last 6 years, there were only a few summer months with a greater number of transactions but overall, a higher price point is assumed as being achieved during the most desirable winter season.

Miami Beach Luxury Home Sales (Over $1M)

(NOV 1st to APR 30th as Winter  |  MAY 1st to OCT 31st as Summer)

• 2017 Winter – APR 2018; TBD Total Condo Sales | Median Sale (SP) Price | Median (Sale SP$/PSF) Price Per Square Foot
• 2017 Summer – 81 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2,150,000 | Median SP$/PSF $630
• 2016 Winter – 74 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1,193,000 | Median SP$/PSF $661
• 2016 Summer – 89 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2,600,000⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $679
• 2015 Winter – 72⬇ Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.818M | Median SP$/PSF $641⬇
• 2015 Summer – 104 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.995M | Median SP$/PSF $689⬆
• 2014 Winter – 92 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2M | Median SP$/PSF $665
• 2014 Summer – 116⬆ Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.225M | Median SP$/PSF $648
• 2013 Winter – 89 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.750M | Median SP$/PSF $594
• 2013 Summer – 108 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.914M | Median SP$/PSF $580
• 2012 Winter – 95 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.9M | Median SP$/PSF $506
• 2012 Summer – 66 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.350M | Median SP$/PSF $618
• 2011 Winter – 58 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.943M | Median SP$/PSF $604
• 2011 Summer – 53 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.4M | Median SP$/PSF $590

Miami Beach Home Sales | Highlights & Notes:

• Median Sale Prices peaked in the summer of 2016 at $2.6M
• Median SP$/PSF values peaked at $689 psf in the summer of 2015
• Median SP$/PSF values decreased 9% when comparing the peak to our recent 2017 summer condo sales.

Miami Beach luxury home sales show us a clear picture as to a higher number of sales during the summer months – results in selling during the summer has obvious advantages from the year over year figures above. Why is summer stronger? Quite possibly the winter draw brings vacationers wanting to ‘set it and forget it’ which is why second-home owners typically prefer a Miami Beach condominium versus a home with the ability to simply turn the key and return at a later date to find their condominium exactly how it was left.

We are currently in a strong buyer’s market with price drops across the board.

I believe we will continue to see slow sales given our current residential market climate yet not to contradict myself, I also think we will continue seeing new record highs in some cases. We have a lot more new construction inventory continually being released, along with weak foreign currencies and government scrutiny on cash purchases above 1 million each of which has been a deterrent causing local market dynamics to change. Interest rates are still very low while many including local economists, agents, and developers remain bullish in South Florida’s residential market over the long-term – I am certainly one of those who feels the same.

What this 2018 season holds for South Florida’s residential sales, only time will tell. Since 2015, demand has decreased while the inventory has increased and hence, the market has shifted to a strong buyer’s market.

When you are truly ready whether buying or selling, don’t get hung up on timing:

• When buying a Miami home or condo, look at the average sale price to list price ratios (SP/LP% or buyer discounts) and push that figure to a substantial discount you’re comfortable with. Lastly, stick with a local expert who can dissect the market values and local trends with you so you understand and stay ahead of the shifts and curves. I’m seeing super discounts on luxury oceanfront condos this year!
• When selling a Miami home or condo, price your property correctly so that you are IN the market and not ON the market then leave it active making pricing adjustments with your representative during any noted market shift. Lastly, have proper marketing in place and while I digress in discussing photography, we are way past the use of a cell phone to showcase your property. Same goes for virtual tours vs. films. SMH.

• MiamiDreamRealty.com
• MiamiPenthousesandEstates.com
• FortLauderdalePenthousesandEstates.com
• Coleman.Properties
• ONE Sotheby’s International Realty & Ashton Coleman
• Jade Beach, Jade Ocean & Jade Signature Condos
• Turnberry Ocean Colony Condos
• What Is My Home Worth Today?
• Marketing by Ashton Coleman
• Marketing Your Luxury Property
• ONE Sotheby’s International Realty – Marketing Affiliates
• Client Reviews
• New Miami Listings
• Sold Miami Properties
• TRENDS (2017 Q3) Report
• Sotheby’s International Realty History/Overview
• Sotheby’s – An Overview and the Auction House
• ONE Sotheby’s International Realty History/Overview

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