When will our Miami Beach Real Estate Market Recover?

So when is our Miami Beach Real Estate Market going to recover? Everyone wants to know and no one has a clear answer. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Assocaition of Realtors (NAR), expects a soft first half of 2008 with notable improvement in the second half of this year.

Evening Sunset in North Bay Village

Evening Sunset in North Bay Village

Then the U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. notes in a recent speech that most forecasters expect a prolonged period of adjustment in housing. These two opinions from respected economists illustrate the differences of opinion when some tell us the recovery and rebound is right around the corner while others say years just to get started again. “Experts” love to make predictions on the US housing markets and when home prices will stabilize & recover but even top forecasters and analysts disagree. The United States housing market is such a large scale to encompass a wide variety of trends in different locations and different time lines. What is noted in this Miami Beach real estate blog is different markets behaving in different ways even when these expert forecasters predictions do become reality. The disconnection of broad forecasts and small scale “local markets” present a troublesome analysis for buyer’s and sellers attempting to decipher what they read & hear in our trusted media sources. When major financial decisions are required, decisions must be made on facts instead of fiction. At the end of the day, you must make your own best judgement for yourself and family.

Rely on current local data from a local area expert.The media uses puffery to make headlines as negativity sells and people feed off the media. What percentage of media news is positive? Negativity sells for the most part. European countries are in some cases now required to report 50 percent positive news! READ THIS. Let me not get off the subject at hand which is local real estate market conditions in Miami Beach. Local data is much more meaningful when accurate and current. Combine local data with information on the national trends to make your own conclusions. Investors use the most precise data to realize market trends and values. They acquire data and make sound decisions based on careful analysis. A little bold luck is always helpful and I’m happy to hear when sellers tell me they sold there Miami home or condo 4Q 2005 just prior to the correction.

Check these organizations for housing data:

Supply of for-sale homes

Foreclosure rates

National, state and local Realtor associations

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Median home prices Residential construction starts
National, state and local Realtor associations U.S. Census Bureau
Volume of homes sold Residential building permits
National, state and local Realtor associations U.S. Census Bureau
Employment and unemployment rates

Homeownership and housing vacancy rates

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau

As for our local market, Miami and the Beaches began the down slide 4th Quarter 2005! This was 3 years ago… were we not the first metropolitan area to begin the nationwide housing correction? Were we not only the first metro area to drop run from but could we potentially prove to be a major metro area who sees the market recovering the fastest next? Time will tell as oceanfront trends now show bottom curves rising as inventory slowly shrinks along Miami Beach, Bal Harbour and Sunny Isles Beach real estate. Pending sales are also showing good progress each quarter. Oh btw, if you haven’t subscribed to this blog yet, do it now! If you’d like new blog updates once available, you can be notified by email or by RSS feed (see upper left column) every time a new posting occurs. 1.888.38.DREAM

About Ashton Coleman

Ashton is a tech & social media savvy professional who understands the industry providing white-glove service with a wealth of experience, an impeccable reputation, and a keen ability to efficiently handle all facets of real estate. Ashton’s territory has grown significantly since 2002, marketing & selling extraordinary South Florida coastal real estate from Miami Beach to Lighthouse Point. A Certified Luxury Homes Marketing Specialist (Million Dollar Guild), with a multitude of other residential certifications, Ashton provides both exceptional service and unique selling techniques. His success is attributed to an unparalleled work ethic with years of experience including top-tier professional services where the ‘art of the deal’ is mastered in contract negotiations, deal-making intricacies and the end, results-driven real estate.

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