Prior to 2002, the summer months were very quiet on South Beach. I recall first the summer of 2000 and the parking situation was as easy as pulling to the front of the destination. There was no traffic! This gradually changed as Miami became a major hub for tourism and the pace of owning Miami Beach real estate escalated.
Fast Forward to Summer 2019 and Miami is now a world-class city with year-round activities and a population influx we would have only imagined 20 years ago.
I became an analytics junkie in 2007 during “the bloodbath” as it was referred to and during the following three years began noticing signs and trends happening in our local market including an escalation in the absorption of inventory along with general consumer optimism. In 2010, many were playing the waiting game thinking the market hadn’t yet hit the low while a common practice was to judge a building’s success by looking for lights on at night (we didn’t have the technology as we do today). In dissecting figures each month and understanding trends, I became bullish and informed my fence sitting clients to buy. In hindsight, the lowest was probably the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2011 but by 2013, those early buyers were glad they bought when they did. Short sales and REO’s (bank owned) deals were a common practice back then making up 18% and 5% inventory respectively. I didn’t know if it was the lowest the market would go but I did see inventory showing consistent absorption along with a continual drop in distressed opportunities.
In 2014, I looked for an answer to a common question:
“When is the best time to list my property to sell?”
While buyers may search for a home year-round, Realtor.com says:
“Prime home-buying season begins in April and reaches its peak in June.” Furthermore, “sellers who list their home during the prime spring and summer months benefit from a larger population of buyers and potential bidding wars, which often result in higher prices and faster closings.”
The discrepancy with the statement here from Realtor.com is that real estate markets can differ with trends being hyper-local. As for Miami Beach condo and home sales, the summer months were in the past, typically considered as slower months. During the winter months, when the weather cools down and tourists arrive in droves, many come to play, explore new locations & events and in many cases, end up buying a property to have a tangible piece of the South Florida life. In the Miami Beach residential community, this is generally the time most would suggest listing their property in order to have the largest selection from the buyer pool.
It’s quite common for the real estate community to assume winter is the most valued time for residential sales to take place. Latin America has helped maintain a dominant force in the summertime given their holiday season falls during our summer months. A significant number of Miami’s condo buyers have originated from Latin America and this has helped strengthen our slower summers for more than a decade.
Here are those seasonal figures for Miami Beach condos and homes summarized showing the total properties sold by season, the median sale price and the median sale price per square foot.
Miami Beach Condo Sales ($500k+)
Winter (NOV 1st to APR 30th) | Summer (MAY 1st to OCT 31st)
- 2018-2019 Winter – 271⬇ Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $835,000⬇ | Median SP$/PSF $675⬇ psf
- 2018 Summer – 294⬆ Total Condo Sales | Median SP $875,000⬆| Median SP$/PSF $712⬆ psf
- 2017 Winter – 289⬆ Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $856,000⬇ | Median SP$/PSF $703⬆
- 2017 Summer – 267⬇ Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $873,000⬆| Median SP$/PSF $676⬇
- 2016 Winter – 273⬇ Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $848,000 | Median SP$/PSF $696⬇
- 2016 Summer – 281⬇ Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $900,000⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $730
- 2015 Winter – 318 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $850,000 | Median SP$/PSF $720
- 2015 Summer – 372 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $850,000 | Median SP$/PSF $712
- 2014 Winter – 416 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $855,000 | Median SP$/PSF $746
- 2014 Summer – 379 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $820,000 | Median SP$/PSF $697
- 2013 Winter – 408 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $860,000 | Median SP$/PSF $692
- 2013 Summer – 451 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $791,000 | Median SP$/PSF $630
- 2012 Winter – 382 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $863,750 | Median SP$/PSF $691
- 2012 Summer – 348 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $967,500 | Median SP$/PSF $688
- 2011 Winter – 322 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $775,650 | Median SP$/PSF $606
- 2011 Summer – 315 Total Condo Sales | Median SP/$ $775,000 | Median SP$/PSF $585
| Condo Sales Highlights:
- As for Miami Beach condo sales, whether winter or summer, there is no right time to find superior results in selling.
- Median Sale Prices peaked in the Summer of 2016 at $900,000
- Median SP$/PSF values peaked at $746 psf in the Winter of 2014.
- Miami Beach condo sales are down 8% while median SP$/PSF values decreased 5% this Winter season when comparing to the Summer of 2018.
Miami Beach Home Sales ($1M+)
Winter (NOV 1st to APR 30th) | Summer (MAY 1st to OCT 31st)
- 2018-2019 Winter – 78⬇ Total Home Sales | Median SP/$ $2.113M⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $656⬇ psf
- 2018 Summer – 99⬆ Total Home Sales | Median SP/$ $1.938M⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $726⬆ psf
- 2017 Winter – 71⬇ Total Home Sales | Median SP/$ $1.9M⬇ | Median SP$/PSF $694⬆ psf
- 2017 Summer – 81⬆ Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.150M⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $630⬇ psf
- 2016 Winter – 74⬆ Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.193M | Median SP$/PSF $661⬇ psf
- 2016 Summer – 89⬆ Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.6M⬆ | Median SP$/PSF $679⬆ psf
- 2015 Winter – 72⬇ Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.818M | Median SP$/PSF $641⬇ psf
- 2015 Summer – 104 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.995M | Median SP$/PSF $689⬆ psf
- 2014 Winter – 92 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2M | Median SP$/PSF $665 psf
- 2014 Summer – 116⬆ Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.225M | Median SP$/PSF $648 psf
- 2013 Winter – 89 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.750M | Median SP$/PSF $594 psf
- 2013 Summer – 108 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.914M | Median SP$/PSF $580 psf
- 2012 Winter – 95 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.9M | Median SP$/PSF $506 psf
- 2012 Summer – 66 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.350M | Median SP$/PSF $618 psf
- 2011 Winter – 58 Total Home Sales | Median SP $1.943M | Median SP$/PSF $604 psf
- 2011 Summer – 53 Total Home Sales | Median SP $2.4M | Median SP$/PSF $590 psf
| Home Sales Highlights:
- Miami Beach luxury home sales show us a clear picture as to a higher number of sales during the Summer months.
- Median Sale Prices peaked in the Summer of 2016 at $2.6M
- Median SP$/PSF values show an all-time high at $726 psf in the most recent Summer of 2018
- Winter Median SP$/PSF values decreased by 10% when comparing the peak to our recent 2018 Summertime home sales.
- Why are summer home sales stronger? Quite possibly the winter draw brings vacationers wanting to own while using several months following to dial in a deal or simply coincidental with relatively similar trends throughout each year.
When you are truly ready for the next chapter, don’t get hung up on timing. We are currently in a super buyer’s market with price drops across the board on Miami Beach condos and homes. Interest rates are still very low while many investors, economists, local brokers, and developers remain bullish on South Florida’s residential market over the long-term (3+ years) – I am certainly one of those with the same beliefs.
Regardless of whether you choose a Miami Beach condo or a home, summer or winter, proper timing is a moot point when you have proper real estate representation showing you ideal property choices, expert negotiation abilities and in the end, a seamless transaction allowing you to finally call Miami “home.”
What this 2019 season holds for South Florida’s residential sales, only time will tell but check back often for new market updates across the coastal areas of Miami & Fort Lauderdale.
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